Traders are pricing an 86 percent implied probability of no change to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the central bank’s April decision to hold the OCR steady at 2.25 percent amid countervailing forces from elevated oil prices and subdued domestic demand. Recent Survey of Expectations data showed one-year-ahead inflation forecasts rising to 3.41 percent and OCR expectations climbing to 3.01 percent, yet weak growth momentum, elevated spare capacity, and contained core measures continue to anchor the policy stance. Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point increase stand at just 14.5 percent, consistent with the RBNZ’s emphasis on monitoring wage growth and medium-term inflation expectations before any tightening, while the negligible 0.1 percent chance of a cut aligns with the inflation trajectory and the policy rate’s position well below neutral levels. The upcoming statement will provide fresh guidance on whether near-term supply shocks warrant a shift in the projected rate path.