RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary with no confirmed signals of imminent departure as of mid-2026. He continues active engagement through congressional testimony on budget requests, defense of MAHA initiatives on vaccines and chronic disease policy, and agency restructuring that includes staffing adjustments and research shifts. Recent reports note criticism of his department management style and public pushback on specific decisions, yet these have not triggered resignation pressure or removal proceedings. Traders price the "No" outcome at 68.5% because the administration shows continuity in key appointments, ongoing policy execution through the remainder of the year, and absence of acute political or legal triggers that would force an exit before December 31. Structural factors like Senate confirmation dynamics and historical patterns for cabinet tenure further support expectations of stability.