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icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

icon for RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

RFK Jr. Out by December 31?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

27% Chance
Polymarket

$24,291 Vol.

27% Chance
Polymarket

$24,291 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**RFK Jr. remains firmly entrenched as HHS Secretary with active leadership on policy priorities.** As of August 2026, he continues directing department operations, including vaccine guideline reviews following a recent Trump executive order, autism safety initiatives, and broader “Make America Healthy Again” reforms on nutrition and chronic disease. Senate confirmation occurred along party lines in early 2025, and the president has repeatedly affirmed support amid internal reorganizations and leadership adjustments at HHS. Critics, including some Democrats and health organizations, have called for his removal over vaccine-related actions and personnel decisions, with isolated lawsuits and congressional pressure, yet these have not produced resignation announcements, firing signals, or shifts in White House backing. No major political or procedural developments in the past 30 days point to an exit before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that assigns roughly three-quarters probability to him completing the term. Scheduled events such as midterms or further litigation could introduce volatility, but current positioning reflects sustained institutional alignment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$24,291
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**RFK Jr. remains firmly entrenched as HHS Secretary with active leadership on policy priorities.** As of August 2026, he continues directing department operations, including vaccine guideline reviews following a recent Trump executive order, autism safety initiatives, and broader “Make America Healthy Again” reforms on nutrition and chronic disease. Senate confirmation occurred along party lines in early 2025, and the president has repeatedly affirmed support amid internal reorganizations and leadership adjustments at HHS. Critics, including some Democrats and health organizations, have called for his removal over vaccine-related actions and personnel decisions, with isolated lawsuits and congressional pressure, yet these have not produced resignation announcements, firing signals, or shifts in White House backing. No major political or procedural developments in the past 30 days point to an exit before year-end, aligning with trader pricing that assigns roughly three-quarters probability to him completing the term. Scheduled events such as midterms or further litigation could introduce volatility, but current positioning reflects sustained institutional alignment.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$24,291
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 27% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 27¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 27%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $24.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 19, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" liegt bei 27% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 27% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „RFK Jr. Out by December 31?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.