Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections occur amid a deliberate “drying out” strategy by authorities, who have lowered turnout targets to around 50% after earlier benchmarks proved difficult amid economic slowdown and war-related fatigue. Limited media visibility, expanded remote electronic voting across dozens of regions, and reported pressure on public-sector workers and students shape participation, while polls show nominal intentions near 66% that historically overstate actual results. The tight clustering of trader probabilities between the 50-53% and 53-56% brackets reflects uncertainty over whether coercion and institutional mobilization can offset low organic interest without triggering higher protest turnout or administrative overreach. Scheduled three-day voting and inclusion of occupied territories add further variables that could nudge final figures within this narrow band.