Recent national polling averages project the PNV at roughly 0.9% of the national vote ahead of the November 29 election, translating under the D’Hondt system into a central estimate of four seats concentrated in the Basque provinces. Regional surveys, including the latest Basque Sociometer, show EH Bildu leading in the Basque Country and gaining ground in Gipuzkoa and Bizkaia at the PNV’s expense, while the PSE-EE holds steady; this dynamic has stabilized projections around four seats in most models. National right-wing gains and left-wing fragmentation further limit the PNV’s upside, with few forecasts placing the party above five seats. Traders appear to weigh the narrow range between four and five seats most heavily, consistent with historical performance and the absence of late shifts in undecided voters or turnout expectations.