**Recent decisions by the Trump administration to limit U.S. involvement to intelligence sharing and targeting data, rather than direct strikes, have reinforced trader expectations against any invocation of the War Powers Resolution in Yemen by October 31.** Yemeni officials and Saudi leaders requested U.S. military support against advancing Houthis in September 2026, prompting brief planning for airstrikes that Trump ultimately canceled at the last minute on multiple occasions. Public statements from the president have emphasized that the Houthis do not seek conflict with the United States and have signaled willingness to avoid targeting U.S. shipping, while the administration prioritizes its ongoing operations related to Iran. With no congressional notification or authorization process underway and only weeks remaining before the deadline, the current approach of restraint and partner-led responses continues to shape the strong market consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for “No.”