**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to “No” because, as of late August 2026, Turkish authorities have formed an expert commission and held initial drafting sessions but have not advanced any constitutional package to the point of announcing a popular referendum.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş has repeatedly described a new “civilian constitution” as a political obligation and expressed optimism for adoption in 2026–2027, citing the recent cross-party “terror-free Türkiye” legislation passed in August. However, securing the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a referendum remains uncertain; the AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 323 seats, and opposition parties have signaled resistance to changes that would primarily benefit presidential term-limit adjustments. Recent parliamentary activity has instead emphasized parallel routes—such as an early-election motion under Article 116 or incremental judicial packages—without committing to a 2026 referendum timeline. These factors keep the implied probability of an announcement this year low.