Recent July 2026 employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside CPI easing to 3.4% year-over-year, have tempered expectations for stronger Q3 expansion, yet trader consensus still assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth. This positioning reflects ongoing resilience from business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and AI-driven manufacturing strength, which are offsetting softer consumer spending amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects. Broader 2026 forecasts from institutions like the Conference Board and Vanguard cluster near 2.1–2.3%, aligning with the market’s secondary support for the 2.0–2.5% range at 24.5%. Upcoming August CPI and employment releases, along with any FOMC signals on monetary policy, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities by clarifying whether labor market softening accelerates or stabilizes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≥3.0% 40%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 19%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$13,614 Vol.
$13,614 Vol.
29. Okt. 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
10%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
19%
≥3.0%
40%
≥3.0% 40%
2.0–2.5% 24%
2.5–3.0% 19%
1.5–2.0% 10%
$13,614 Vol.
$13,614 Vol.
29. Okt. 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$460 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
6%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
10%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,145 Vol.
19%
≥3.0%
$6,360 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent July 2026 employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside CPI easing to 3.4% year-over-year, have tempered expectations for stronger Q3 expansion, yet trader consensus still assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth. This positioning reflects ongoing resilience from business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and AI-driven manufacturing strength, which are offsetting softer consumer spending amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects. Broader 2026 forecasts from institutions like the Conference Board and Vanguard cluster near 2.1–2.3%, aligning with the market’s secondary support for the 2.0–2.5% range at 24.5%. Upcoming August CPI and employment releases, along with any FOMC signals on monetary policy, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities by clarifying whether labor market softening accelerates or stabilizes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volumen
$13,614Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent July 2026 employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside CPI easing to 3.4% year-over-year, have tempered expectations for stronger Q3 expansion, yet trader consensus still assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth. This positioning reflects ongoing resilience from business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and AI-driven manufacturing strength, which are offsetting softer consumer spending amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects. Broader 2026 forecasts from institutions like the Conference Board and Vanguard cluster near 2.1–2.3%, aligning with the market’s secondary support for the 2.0–2.5% range at 24.5%. Upcoming August CPI and employment releases, along with any FOMC signals on monetary policy, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities by clarifying whether labor market softening accelerates or stabilizes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$13,614Enddatum
29. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 employment data showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside CPI easing to 3.4% year-over-year, have tempered expectations for stronger Q3 expansion, yet trader consensus still assigns the highest implied probability to ≥3.0% annualized GDP growth. This positioning reflects ongoing resilience from business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies and AI-driven manufacturing strength, which are offsetting softer consumer spending amid elevated energy prices and tariff effects. Broader 2026 forecasts from institutions like the Conference Board and Vanguard cluster near 2.1–2.3%, aligning with the market’s secondary support for the 2.0–2.5% range at 24.5%. Upcoming August CPI and employment releases, along with any FOMC signals on monetary policy, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities by clarifying whether labor market softening accelerates or stabilizes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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