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icon for US Trade Deficit - June 2026
Economy·Us

US Trade Deficit - June 2026

icon for US Trade Deficit - June 2026
Economy·Us

US Trade Deficit - June 2026

Aug. 4

Aug. 4

70-80B 61%

60-70B 19%

50-60B 10%

80-90B 10%

Polymarket
NEU

70-80B 61%

60-70B 19%

50-60B 10%

80-90B 10%

Polymarket
NEU

<50B

$328 Vol.

1%

50-60B

$125 Vol.

10%

60-70B

$257 Vol.

19%

70-80B

$2,910 Vol.

61%

80-90B

$88 Vol.

10%

90-100B

$88 Vol.

9%

100B+

$199 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.

If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$3,995
Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 data showing a sharp widening to a $77.6 billion goods-and-services deficit, driven by a $23 billion surge in imports of AI components, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles alongside weaker exports, has anchored trader focus on the June release. Advance June goods figures indicating a 4.2% narrowing of the goods gap to $101.5 billion, with imports falling 2.6% and exports declining 1.8%, have shifted consensus toward the 70-80 billion band, now carrying 61% implied probability. This reflects expectations that services surplus stability and fading restocking effects will keep the total deficit near recent averages, ahead of the August 4 full BEA release. Market-implied odds also price modest downside risk from potential export volatility.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.

If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$3,995
Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„US Trade Deficit - June 2026" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „70-80B" mit 61%, gefolgt von „60-70B" mit 19%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 61¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 61% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„US Trade Deficit - June 2026" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 29, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „US Trade Deficit - June 2026" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 7 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „US Trade Deficit - June 2026" ist „70-80B" mit 61%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 61% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „60-70B" mit 19%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „US Trade Deficit - June 2026" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.