Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 800–900 billion dollar US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 as most likely at 45%, reflecting early-year Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a Q1 deficit annualized near 700 billion but with March widening to 60.3 billion on surging imports outpacing export gains. Year-to-date, the gap has shrunk 55% from 2025's elevated levels, credited to administration tariffs—including 10% universal duties and reciprocal measures—curbing import volumes despite robust consumer spending and 2% Q1 GDP growth. Persistent strong dollar and structural demand for foreign goods temper expectations of sharper narrowing, positioning 900 billion–1 trillion next at 31.5%, with lower ranges trailing amid historical base rates around 900 billion annually. April trade data, due soon, could shift assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
5%
700–800 Mrd.
12%
800–900 Mrd.
44%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
32%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
5%
$20,974 Vol.
$20,974 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$16,636 Vol.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800 Mrd.
$455 Vol.
12%
800–900 Mrd.
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$961 Vol.
32%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 800–900 billion dollar US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 as most likely at 45%, reflecting early-year Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a Q1 deficit annualized near 700 billion but with March widening to 60.3 billion on surging imports outpacing export gains. Year-to-date, the gap has shrunk 55% from 2025's elevated levels, credited to administration tariffs—including 10% universal duties and reciprocal measures—curbing import volumes despite robust consumer spending and 2% Q1 GDP growth. Persistent strong dollar and structural demand for foreign goods temper expectations of sharper narrowing, positioning 900 billion–1 trillion next at 31.5%, with lower ranges trailing amid historical base rates around 900 billion annually. April trade data, due soon, could shift assessments.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$20,974Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 800–900 billion dollar US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 as most likely at 45%, reflecting early-year Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a Q1 deficit annualized near 700 billion but with March widening to 60.3 billion on surging imports outpacing export gains. Year-to-date, the gap has shrunk 55% from 2025's elevated levels, credited to administration tariffs—including 10% universal duties and reciprocal measures—curbing import volumes despite robust consumer spending and 2% Q1 GDP growth. Persistent strong dollar and structural demand for foreign goods temper expectations of sharper narrowing, positioning 900 billion–1 trillion next at 31.5%, with lower ranges trailing amid historical base rates around 900 billion annually. April trade data, due soon, could shift assessments.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,974Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 800–900 billion dollar US goods and services trade deficit for 2026 as most likely at 45%, reflecting early-year Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a Q1 deficit annualized near 700 billion but with March widening to 60.3 billion on surging imports outpacing export gains. Year-to-date, the gap has shrunk 55% from 2025's elevated levels, credited to administration tariffs—including 10% universal duties and reciprocal measures—curbing import volumes despite robust consumer spending and 2% Q1 GDP growth. Persistent strong dollar and structural demand for foreign goods temper expectations of sharper narrowing, positioning 900 billion–1 trillion next at 31.5%, with lower ranges trailing amid historical base rates around 900 billion annually. April trade data, due soon, could shift assessments.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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