President Trump's frequent Truth Social posts on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have elevated trader consensus to 56% implied probability for a "Ceasefire" mention this week (May 11-17), following Iran's reported firing of bullets at a French ship on May 14—a direct violation of the existing agreement that prompted immediate White House responses and threats of "Epic Fury." His ongoing state visit to Beijing (May 13-15) for talks with Xi Jinping, including a announced rare earths deal and China's pledge against arming Iran, underscores foreign policy dominance in his messaging. With the week midway, traders weigh continued Iran focus against patterns like UFC references (50%) or ICE (40%), amid high posting volume on diplomacy, sanctions, and military posturing; announcements through May 17 could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertTrust
33%
Game
38%
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire
54%
King
38%
ICE
47%
No cards / All the cards
18%
Epstein
4%
Baby
40%
UFC
42%
Coal
21%
Crypto / Bitcoin
20%
Virus
18%
World Cup
20%
Football
26%
Brazil
14%
$6,972 Vol.
Trust
33%
Game
38%
Ceasefire / Cease-fire / Cease fire
54%
King
38%
ICE
47%
No cards / All the cards
18%
Epstein
4%
Baby
40%
UFC
42%
Coal
21%
Crypto / Bitcoin
20%
Virus
18%
World Cup
20%
Football
26%
Brazil
14%
For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Markt eröffnet: May 9, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in quote and reply posts/truths count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts/truths and reposts/reTruths will not count.
Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)
Any plural or possessive forms of a listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.
Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: r@d1cal, for "radical") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.
Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent.
Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").
The resolution source for this market will be Donald Trumps's verified Truth Social account: @realDonaldTrump
Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Truth Social account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald Trump posts/truths from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's frequent Truth Social posts on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have elevated trader consensus to 56% implied probability for a "Ceasefire" mention this week (May 11-17), following Iran's reported firing of bullets at a French ship on May 14—a direct violation of the existing agreement that prompted immediate White House responses and threats of "Epic Fury." His ongoing state visit to Beijing (May 13-15) for talks with Xi Jinping, including a announced rare earths deal and China's pledge against arming Iran, underscores foreign policy dominance in his messaging. With the week midway, traders weigh continued Iran focus against patterns like UFC references (50%) or ICE (40%), amid high posting volume on diplomacy, sanctions, and military posturing; announcements through May 17 could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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