Anthropic’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude models—led by claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5 variants—occupying the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard with scores above 1530, well ahead of Google’s Gemini entries near 1525. Recent releases have delivered clear gains in chain-of-thought reasoning on competition-level problems, ArXivMath, FrontierMath tiers, and even formal theorem proving, backed by hundreds of thousands of blind preference votes. With resolution only days away on September 30, the stable lead leaves little room for reversal. A surprise high-impact release or major benchmark shift from OpenAI or Google in the final week remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 94%
OpenAI 3.2%
Google 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
$68,955 Vol.
$68,955 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
3%
2%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 3.2%
Google 1.6%
Z.ai <1%
$68,955 Vol.
$68,955 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$20,320 Vol.
94%
OpenAI
$20,645 Vol.
3%
$9,867 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$3,703 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,457 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$2,129 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$642 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,234 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$2,171 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,715 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$499 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$565 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$466 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$450 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$449 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$609 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude models—led by claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5 variants—occupying the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard with scores above 1530, well ahead of Google’s Gemini entries near 1525. Recent releases have delivered clear gains in chain-of-thought reasoning on competition-level problems, ArXivMath, FrontierMath tiers, and even formal theorem proving, backed by hundreds of thousands of blind preference votes. With resolution only days away on September 30, the stable lead leaves little room for reversal. A surprise high-impact release or major benchmark shift from OpenAI or Google in the final week remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$68,955Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude models—led by claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5 variants—occupying the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard with scores above 1530, well ahead of Google’s Gemini entries near 1525. Recent releases have delivered clear gains in chain-of-thought reasoning on competition-level problems, ArXivMath, FrontierMath tiers, and even formal theorem proving, backed by hundreds of thousands of blind preference votes. With resolution only days away on September 30, the stable lead leaves little room for reversal. A surprise high-impact release or major benchmark shift from OpenAI or Google in the final week remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$68,955Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 7:29 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 93.5% market-implied probability reflects its Claude models—led by claude-opus-5-max and claude-fable-5 variants—occupying the top ranks on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard with scores above 1530, well ahead of Google’s Gemini entries near 1525. Recent releases have delivered clear gains in chain-of-thought reasoning on competition-level problems, ArXivMath, FrontierMath tiers, and even formal theorem proving, backed by hundreds of thousands of blind preference votes. With resolution only days away on September 30, the stable lead leaves little room for reversal. A surprise high-impact release or major benchmark shift from OpenAI or Google in the final week remains the only realistic scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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