The WI-07 seat is an open contest following Republican incumbent Tom Tiffany’s decision to run for governor rather than seek re-election. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, underpins the market’s 88.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Michael Alfonso secured the GOP primary on August 11, 2026, after a competitive field, positioning the party to maintain its hold in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2010. On the Democratic side, Fred Clark advanced from his primary, yet the party faces structural headwinds including lower historical turnout margins and limited recent success in similar rural and northern Wisconsin terrain. Traders appear to weigh these baseline partisan and structural factors most heavily, with limited polling or late-breaking developments available to shift implied probabilities materially before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWI-07 Wahlsieger
WI-07 Wahlsieger
$34,544 Vol.
$34,544 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
89%
Demokratische Partei
12%
$34,544 Vol.
$34,544 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$18,945 Vol.
89%
Demokratische Partei
$15,599 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The WI-07 seat is an open contest following Republican incumbent Tom Tiffany’s decision to run for governor rather than seek re-election. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, underpins the market’s 88.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Michael Alfonso secured the GOP primary on August 11, 2026, after a competitive field, positioning the party to maintain its hold in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2010. On the Democratic side, Fred Clark advanced from his primary, yet the party faces structural headwinds including lower historical turnout margins and limited recent success in similar rural and northern Wisconsin terrain. Traders appear to weigh these baseline partisan and structural factors most heavily, with limited polling or late-breaking developments available to shift implied probabilities materially before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$34,544Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The WI-07 seat is an open contest following Republican incumbent Tom Tiffany’s decision to run for governor rather than seek re-election. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, underpins the market’s 88.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Michael Alfonso secured the GOP primary on August 11, 2026, after a competitive field, positioning the party to maintain its hold in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2010. On the Democratic side, Fred Clark advanced from his primary, yet the party faces structural headwinds including lower historical turnout margins and limited recent success in similar rural and northern Wisconsin terrain. Traders appear to weigh these baseline partisan and structural factors most heavily, with limited polling or late-breaking developments available to shift implied probabilities materially before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$34,544Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The WI-07 seat is an open contest following Republican incumbent Tom Tiffany’s decision to run for governor rather than seek re-election. The district’s strong Republican tilt, reflected in an R+11 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, underpins the market’s 88.5% consensus for the Republican nominee. Michael Alfonso secured the GOP primary on August 11, 2026, after a competitive field, positioning the party to maintain its hold in a district that has not elected a Democrat since 2010. On the Democratic side, Fred Clark advanced from his primary, yet the party faces structural headwinds including lower historical turnout margins and limited recent success in similar rural and northern Wisconsin terrain. Traders appear to weigh these baseline partisan and structural factors most heavily, with limited polling or late-breaking developments available to shift implied probabilities materially before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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