NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts maintain a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing developing El Niño conditions that suppress formation alongside current sea-surface patterns, with expectations of only 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide and markedly reduced U.S. landfall odds. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Official outlooks assign well below-average probabilities for major (Category 3+) landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline through November. Traders appear to weigh the slim remaining window for intensification and landfall against these model consensus signals, supporting the elevated “No” probability for a Category 4 event before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Ja
16% Chance
$340,143 Vol.
$340,143 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
16% Chance
$340,143 Vol.
$340,143 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts maintain a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing developing El Niño conditions that suppress formation alongside current sea-surface patterns, with expectations of only 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide and markedly reduced U.S. landfall odds. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Official outlooks assign well below-average probabilities for major (Category 3+) landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline through November. Traders appear to weigh the slim remaining window for intensification and landfall against these model consensus signals, supporting the elevated “No” probability for a Category 4 event before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$340,143Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts maintain a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing developing El Niño conditions that suppress formation alongside current sea-surface patterns, with expectations of only 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide and markedly reduced U.S. landfall odds. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Official outlooks assign well below-average probabilities for major (Category 3+) landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline through November. Traders appear to weigh the slim remaining window for intensification and landfall against these model consensus signals, supporting the elevated “No” probability for a Category 4 event before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$340,143Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts maintain a well below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing developing El Niño conditions that suppress formation alongside current sea-surface patterns, with expectations of only 0–2 major hurricanes basin-wide and markedly reduced U.S. landfall odds. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Official outlooks assign well below-average probabilities for major (Category 3+) landfalls along the continental U.S. coastline through November. Traders appear to weigh the slim remaining window for intensification and landfall against these model consensus signals, supporting the elevated “No” probability for a Category 4 event before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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