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icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

Ja

35% Chance
Polymarket

$327,944 Vol.

Ja

35% Chance
Polymarket

$327,944 Vol.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent below-normal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, form the main basis for the 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide and a 32% chance of at least one major (Category 3–5) landfall along the continental U.S., well below the long-term average of 43%. The 2025 season’s complete absence of any hurricane landfalls reinforces this trend, while the National Hurricane Center’s first 2026 tropical outlook and NOAA’s seasonal release scheduled for May 21 will provide updated model consensus on steering patterns and peak-season conditions. Historical records show Category 4 landfalls occur irregularly, often clustered in active years.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$327,944
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent below-normal forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven by an emerging El Niño pattern that increases vertical wind shear and suppresses intensification, form the main basis for the 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 hurricane will reach the U.S. coastline before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just two major hurricanes basin-wide and a 32% chance of at least one major (Category 3–5) landfall along the continental U.S., well below the long-term average of 43%. The 2025 season’s complete absence of any hurricane landfalls reinforces this trend, while the National Hurricane Center’s first 2026 tropical outlook and NOAA’s seasonal release scheduled for May 21 will provide updated model consensus on steering patterns and peak-season conditions. Historical records show Category 4 landfalls occur irregularly, often clustered in active years.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$327,944
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA auf Land treffen?" mit 35%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 35¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 35% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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