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icon for Werden die Rebellen Gao bis zum 31. Dezember erobern?
Geopolitik·Gao

Werden die Rebellen Gao bis zum 31. Dezember erobern?

icon for Werden die Rebellen Gao bis zum 31. Dezember erobern?
Geopolitik·Gao

Werden die Rebellen Gao bis zum 31. Dezember erobern?

Ja

25% Chance
Polymarket

$12,153 Vol.

Ja

25% Chance
Polymarket

$12,153 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and their JNIM allies have intensified coordinated attacks across northern Mali since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and besieging positions near Anefis while conducting ambushes on military convoys in the Gao region that inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps partners.** The Malian junta, backed by air power and Russian support, broke the Anefis blockade in July and retained control of Gao city itself amid ongoing clashes. Prisoner exchanges in August signal tactical pauses rather than decisive rebel momentum toward urban seizure. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no verified rebel advances on Gao proper, traders assign the capture a low probability, reflecting the army’s defensive posture around strategic northern centers despite broader insurgent pressure in surrounding areas.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.

If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volumen
$12,153
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.**Rebel forces from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and their JNIM allies have intensified coordinated attacks across northern Mali since April 2026, recapturing Kidal and besieging positions near Anefis while conducting ambushes on military convoys in the Gao region that inflicted heavy losses on Malian troops and Russian Africa Corps partners.** The Malian junta, backed by air power and Russian support, broke the Anefis blockade in July and retained control of Gao city itself amid ongoing clashes. Prisoner exchanges in August signal tactical pauses rather than decisive rebel momentum toward urban seizure. With roughly four months remaining until year-end and no verified rebel advances on Gao proper, traders assign the capture a low probability, reflecting the army’s defensive posture around strategic northern centers despite broader insurgent pressure in surrounding areas.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.

If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volumen
$12,153
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.

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