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icon for Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?
Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?

icon for Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?
Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?

$125,557 Vol.

30. Sep. 2026
Polymarket

$125,557 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$52,325 Vol.

6%

December 31

$73,232 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental gains in Donetsk Oblast through 2026, including reported control of Vodianske by late July amid fighting around Dobropillia, though specific map-defined intersections remain subject to ongoing verification. Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15 in northern Donetsk, clearing Russian infiltrators from roughly 75 square kilometers and recapturing additional territory near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These developments occur against stalled diplomatic efforts and Russian emphasis on consolidating the region. Trader assessments of capture timelines by late September or December incorporate the pace of attrition warfare, Ukrainian reinforcements in key sectors, and potential shifts in frontline logistics or reinforcements.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png

Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png

Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$125,557
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have made incremental gains in Donetsk Oblast through 2026, including reported control of Vodianske by late July amid fighting around Dobropillia, though specific map-defined intersections remain subject to ongoing verification. Ukraine's Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi on September 15 in northern Donetsk, clearing Russian infiltrators from roughly 75 square kilometers and recapturing additional territory near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. These developments occur against stalled diplomatic efforts and Russian emphasis on consolidating the region. Trader assessments of capture timelines by late September or December incorporate the pace of attrition warfare, Ukrainian reinforcements in key sectors, and potential shifts in frontline logistics or reinforcements.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png

Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png

Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske1.png Intersection Location in Vodianske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske2.png Vodianske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vodianske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$125,557
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 3:03 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „December 31" mit 26%, gefolgt von „September 30" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 26¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $125.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Jul 24, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?" ist „December 31" mit 26%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 26% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „September 30" mit 6%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Wird Russland Vodianske erobern, bis...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.