Trump’s late-2025 proposal for a tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per eligible person has not advanced to legislation or implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated major tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, triggering refunds of roughly $100 billion and sharply reducing projected revenue for 2026. Analysts estimate that even a one-time, income-limited payout would cost $450 billion or more—well above available collections—while any broad program would require congressional passage that has not materialized. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no bill or executive mechanism in place, trader consensus assigns a 90.5% probability to “No,” reflecting these structural, legal, and fiscal barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert10% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
10% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s late-2025 proposal for a tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per eligible person has not advanced to legislation or implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated major tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, triggering refunds of roughly $100 billion and sharply reducing projected revenue for 2026. Analysts estimate that even a one-time, income-limited payout would cost $450 billion or more—well above available collections—while any broad program would require congressional passage that has not materialized. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no bill or executive mechanism in place, trader consensus assigns a 90.5% probability to “No,” reflecting these structural, legal, and fiscal barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volumen
$1,883Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump’s late-2025 proposal for a tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per eligible person has not advanced to legislation or implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated major tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, triggering refunds of roughly $100 billion and sharply reducing projected revenue for 2026. Analysts estimate that even a one-time, income-limited payout would cost $450 billion or more—well above available collections—while any broad program would require congressional passage that has not materialized. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no bill or executive mechanism in place, trader consensus assigns a 90.5% probability to “No,” reflecting these structural, legal, and fiscal barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,883Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s late-2025 proposal for a tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per eligible person has not advanced to legislation or implementation. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated major tariff authorities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, triggering refunds of roughly $100 billion and sharply reducing projected revenue for 2026. Analysts estimate that even a one-time, income-limited payout would cost $450 billion or more—well above available collections—while any broad program would require congressional passage that has not materialized. With the December 31, 2026 resolution date approaching and no bill or executive mechanism in place, trader consensus assigns a 90.5% probability to “No,” reflecting these structural, legal, and fiscal barriers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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