California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
$13,176 Vol.
$13,176 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
14%
$13,176 Vol.
$13,176 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,425 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$6,751 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$13,176Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$13,176Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 48th congressional district, an open seat following Republican Darrell Issa's retirement announcement, features a top-two primary matchup between Democrat Marni von Wilpert and Republican Jim Desmond heading into the November general election. Recent redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted the district's partisan voting index slightly toward Democrats, with registration edges favoring the party by about four points in a San Diego and Riverside County area that has trended more competitive in recent cycles. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the contest as lean or tilt Democratic, reflecting structural advantages and the absence of an incumbent. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 86% implied probability of victory, consistent with historical performance in similarly situated California open seats and limited public polling showing Democratic strength in the general election environment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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