Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 51 percent, advancing alongside Republican Doug Basler. The 9th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+22 and Solid D rating from forecasters, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory. Smith's long tenure and consistent performance in this suburban and urban Seattle-area seat have limited Republican inroads, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national Republican wave, major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or exceptionally high turnout favoring the challenger in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WA-09 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$27,908 Vol.
$27,908 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$27,908 Vol.
$27,908 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$10,552 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$17,356 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 51 percent, advancing alongside Republican Doug Basler. The 9th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+22 and Solid D rating from forecasters, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory. Smith's long tenure and consistent performance in this suburban and urban Seattle-area seat have limited Republican inroads, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national Republican wave, major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or exceptionally high turnout favoring the challenger in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$27,908Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 51 percent, advancing alongside Republican Doug Basler. The 9th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+22 and Solid D rating from forecasters, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory. Smith's long tenure and consistent performance in this suburban and urban Seattle-area seat have limited Republican inroads, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national Republican wave, major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or exceptionally high turnout favoring the challenger in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,908Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith secured the top spot in Washington's August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 51 percent, advancing alongside Republican Doug Basler. The 9th district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index near D+22 and Solid D rating from forecasters, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic victory. Smith's long tenure and consistent performance in this suburban and urban Seattle-area seat have limited Republican inroads, aligning with the 94.5 percent implied probability. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national Republican wave, major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, or exceptionally high turnout favoring the challenger in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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