China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9% 66%
4.3-4.6% 32.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.6%
4.0-4.3% <1%
$97,955 Vol.
$97,955 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
1%
4.3-4.6%
33%
4.6-4.9%
66%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5-5.8%
<1%
5.8-6.1%
<1%
6.1%+
<1%
4.6-4.9% 66%
4.3-4.6% 32.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.6%
4.0-4.3% <1%
$97,955 Vol.
$97,955 Vol.
16 jul 2026
<4.0%
$7,224 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$10,376 Vol.
1%
4.3-4.6%
$11,972 Vol.
33%
4.6-4.9%
$21,916 Vol.
66%
4.9-5.2%
$11,742 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$9,661 Vol.
<1%
5.5-5.8%
$7,624 Vol.
<1%
5.8-6.1%
$9,286 Vol.
<1%
6.1%+
$8,154 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$97,955Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$97,955Fecha de finalización
16 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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