The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026 89.8%
200–250B 2.1%
125–150B 1.2%
250 mil millones+ <1%
$404,057 Vol.
$404,057 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<100 mil millones
<1%
100–125 mil millones
<1%
125–150B
1%
150–175 mil millones
<1%
175–200 mil millones
<1%
200–250B
2%
250 mil millones+
1%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026
90%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026 89.8%
200–250B 2.1%
125–150B 1.2%
250 mil millones+ <1%
$404,057 Vol.
$404,057 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<100 mil millones
$33,251 Vol.
<1%
100–125 mil millones
$62,203 Vol.
<1%
125–150B
$26,692 Vol.
1%
150–175 mil millones
$59,911 Vol.
<1%
175–200 mil millones
$58,164 Vol.
<1%
200–250B
$21,126 Vol.
2%
250 mil millones+
$126,227 Vol.
1%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 30 de junio de 2026
$16,483 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volumen
$404,057Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$404,057Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant 90.3% market-implied probability on no IPO by June 30, 2026 stems from the complete absence of an S-1 filing and consistent analyst assessments that Databricks remains focused on private growth in its data and AI infrastructure platform. Recent $134 billion valuation funding rounds, including a $4 billion round closed in late 2025, have provided ample capital without the need for public market access, while CEO statements emphasize readiness without committing to near-term timing. Typical IPO processes require six to twelve months after a confidential filing, placing any realistic debut window in the second half of 2026 or early 2027. A sudden acceleration to meet the June deadline would require unprecedented regulatory speed and market conditions, scenarios traders view as highly improbable given current operational signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes