Eurozone inflation surged to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March and well above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, prompting traders to price in a near-certain rate hike this year. The ECB's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting but debated tightening, with President Christine Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Schnabel, and Kazimir signaling hikes as likely as soon as June to combat entrenched price pressures. A Bloomberg survey forecasts two increases in 2026, aligning with IMF projections of 50 basis points, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this skin-in-the-game market consensus at 90.5% for yes, though a sharp disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation could still shift odds before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$111,659 Vol.
$111,659 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$111,659 Vol.
$111,659 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March and well above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, prompting traders to price in a near-certain rate hike this year. The ECB's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting but debated tightening, with President Christine Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Schnabel, and Kazimir signaling hikes as likely as soon as June to combat entrenched price pressures. A Bloomberg survey forecasts two increases in 2026, aligning with IMF projections of 50 basis points, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this skin-in-the-game market consensus at 90.5% for yes, though a sharp disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$111,659Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March and well above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, prompting traders to price in a near-certain rate hike this year. The ECB's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting but debated tightening, with President Christine Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Schnabel, and Kazimir signaling hikes as likely as soon as June to combat entrenched price pressures. A Bloomberg survey forecasts two increases in 2026, aligning with IMF projections of 50 basis points, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this skin-in-the-game market consensus at 90.5% for yes, though a sharp disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation could still shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$111,659Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 3.0% in April 2026, up from 2.6% in March and well above the ECB's 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict, prompting traders to price in a near-certain rate hike this year. The ECB's Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its April 30 meeting but debated tightening, with President Christine Lagarde and officials like Nagel, Schnabel, and Kazimir signaling hikes as likely as soon as June to combat entrenched price pressures. A Bloomberg survey forecasts two increases in 2026, aligning with IMF projections of 50 basis points, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this skin-in-the-game market consensus at 90.5% for yes, though a sharp disinflation or geopolitical de-escalation could still shift odds before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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