Recent geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation above the European Central Bank's 2 percent target, reaching 3 percent on energy price spikes that have revised 2026 inflation projections upward to 2.6-2.7 percent. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent on April 30 while signaling data-dependent tightening options, including a potential June move, with hawkish remarks from officials such as Isabel Schnabel reinforcing the shift. Economist surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters now anticipate two quarter-point hikes this year to counter persistent upside risks, aligning with trader consensus that assigns a 92 percent implied probability of at least one rate increase in 2026. The next policy decision on June 11 will test these expectations against incoming data on inflation transmission and growth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
¿Subida de tipos del BCE en 2026?
Sí
$114,274 Vol.
$114,274 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$114,274 Vol.
$114,274 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation above the European Central Bank's 2 percent target, reaching 3 percent on energy price spikes that have revised 2026 inflation projections upward to 2.6-2.7 percent. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent on April 30 while signaling data-dependent tightening options, including a potential June move, with hawkish remarks from officials such as Isabel Schnabel reinforcing the shift. Economist surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters now anticipate two quarter-point hikes this year to counter persistent upside risks, aligning with trader consensus that assigns a 92 percent implied probability of at least one rate increase in 2026. The next policy decision on June 11 will test these expectations against incoming data on inflation transmission and growth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$114,274Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation above the European Central Bank's 2 percent target, reaching 3 percent on energy price spikes that have revised 2026 inflation projections upward to 2.6-2.7 percent. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent on April 30 while signaling data-dependent tightening options, including a potential June move, with hawkish remarks from officials such as Isabel Schnabel reinforcing the shift. Economist surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters now anticipate two quarter-point hikes this year to counter persistent upside risks, aligning with trader consensus that assigns a 92 percent implied probability of at least one rate increase in 2026. The next policy decision on June 11 will test these expectations against incoming data on inflation transmission and growth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$114,274Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have pushed euro area headline inflation above the European Central Bank's 2 percent target, reaching 3 percent on energy price spikes that have revised 2026 inflation projections upward to 2.6-2.7 percent. The Governing Council held its deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent on April 30 while signaling data-dependent tightening options, including a potential June move, with hawkish remarks from officials such as Isabel Schnabel reinforcing the shift. Economist surveys from Bloomberg and Reuters now anticipate two quarter-point hikes this year to counter persistent upside risks, aligning with trader consensus that assigns a 92 percent implied probability of at least one rate increase in 2026. The next policy decision on June 11 will test these expectations against incoming data on inflation transmission and growth.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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