Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.3–3.8%, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth, has anchored market-implied odds heavily toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50–3.75%, and recent FOMC minutes plus analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan signal that officials are likely to hold policy restrictive into early 2027 rather than ease or tighten aggressively. This dynamic supports the 61.5% probability of unchanged rates while assigning modest weight to a 25-basis-point hike amid ongoing price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.2%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
20%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
2%
No change 62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.2%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$8,045 Vol.
20%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.3–3.8%, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth, has anchored market-implied odds heavily toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50–3.75%, and recent FOMC minutes plus analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan signal that officials are likely to hold policy restrictive into early 2027 rather than ease or tighten aggressively. This dynamic supports the 61.5% probability of unchanged rates while assigning modest weight to a 25-basis-point hike amid ongoing price pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volumen
$34,538Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.3–3.8%, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth, has anchored market-implied odds heavily toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50–3.75%, and recent FOMC minutes plus analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan signal that officials are likely to hold policy restrictive into early 2027 rather than ease or tighten aggressively. This dynamic supports the 61.5% probability of unchanged rates while assigning modest weight to a 25-basis-point hike amid ongoing price pressures.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$34,538Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with recent PCE readings near 3.3–3.8%, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth, has anchored market-implied odds heavily toward no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50–3.75%, and recent FOMC minutes plus analyst forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan signal that officials are likely to hold policy restrictive into early 2027 rather than ease or tighten aggressively. This dynamic supports the 61.5% probability of unchanged rates while assigning modest weight to a 25-basis-point hike amid ongoing price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No habrá cambios en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de diciembre de 2026?
68%
Sí
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de octubre de 2026?
72%
Sí
¿No habrá ningún cambio en las tasas de interés de la Fed después de la reunión de septiembre de 2026?
75%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes