Recent softening in U.S. labor market data, including July 2026 nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, continue to anchor policy caution against cuts, while the current 3.50%-3.75% target range and divided committee views limit aggressive moves. Traders price in modest hike odds at 20% for a 25 basis point increase amid resilient growth, reflecting the balance between above-target inflation and easing employment momentum ahead of key upcoming releases and the September FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
20%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
2%
No change 62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 20%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps decrease 5.3%
$34,538 Vol.
$34,538 Vol.
27 ene 2027
50+ bps decrease
$3,886 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$7,417 Vol.
15%
No change
$13,728 Vol.
62%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$8,045 Vol.
20%
Aumento de 50+ puntos básicos
$1,463 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent softening in U.S. labor market data, including July 2026 nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, continue to anchor policy caution against cuts, while the current 3.50%-3.75% target range and divided committee views limit aggressive moves. Traders price in modest hike odds at 20% for a 25 basis point increase amid resilient growth, reflecting the balance between above-target inflation and easing employment momentum ahead of key upcoming releases and the September FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volumen
$34,538Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent softening in U.S. labor market data, including July 2026 nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, continue to anchor policy caution against cuts, while the current 3.50%-3.75% target range and divided committee views limit aggressive moves. Traders price in modest hike odds at 20% for a 25 basis point increase amid resilient growth, reflecting the balance between above-target inflation and easing employment momentum ahead of key upcoming releases and the September FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$34,538Fecha de finalización
27 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in U.S. labor market data, including July 2026 nonfarm payrolls contracting by 23,000 alongside a 4.1% unemployment rate, has tempered expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening, supporting the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation pressures, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures near 2.5%, continue to anchor policy caution against cuts, while the current 3.50%-3.75% target range and divided committee views limit aggressive moves. Traders price in modest hike odds at 20% for a 25 basis point increase amid resilient growth, reflecting the balance between above-target inflation and easing employment momentum ahead of key upcoming releases and the September FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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