Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have lifted the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, though the current 68.5% probability of no hike reflects trader consensus that the central bank will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. Resilient consumer spending and labor market data continue to offset upside price pressures, aligning with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections that still embed modest easing rather than tightening. Geopolitical risks and sticky core PCE readings above 3% have narrowed the gap between cut and hike paths, yet June FOMC minutes and upcoming CPI releases remain the key catalysts that could shift the balance before the next policy meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,103,208 Vol.
$1,103,208 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,103,208 Vol.
$1,103,208 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have lifted the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, though the current 68.5% probability of no hike reflects trader consensus that the central bank will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. Resilient consumer spending and labor market data continue to offset upside price pressures, aligning with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections that still embed modest easing rather than tightening. Geopolitical risks and sticky core PCE readings above 3% have narrowed the gap between cut and hike paths, yet June FOMC minutes and upcoming CPI releases remain the key catalysts that could shift the balance before the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,103,208Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have lifted the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, though the current 68.5% probability of no hike reflects trader consensus that the central bank will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. Resilient consumer spending and labor market data continue to offset upside price pressures, aligning with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections that still embed modest easing rather than tightening. Geopolitical risks and sticky core PCE readings above 3% have narrowed the gap between cut and hike paths, yet June FOMC minutes and upcoming CPI releases remain the key catalysts that could shift the balance before the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,103,208Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings have lifted the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, though the current 68.5% probability of no hike reflects trader consensus that the central bank will hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through year-end. Resilient consumer spending and labor market data continue to offset upside price pressures, aligning with the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections that still embed modest easing rather than tightening. Geopolitical risks and sticky core PCE readings above 3% have narrowed the gap between cut and hike paths, yet June FOMC minutes and upcoming CPI releases remain the key catalysts that could shift the balance before the next policy meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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