Congressional leaders have advanced a short-term continuing resolution (H.R. 9770) to fund federal agencies at fiscal year 2026 levels through December 4, 2026, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of current appropriations. The House passed the measure in July, and the Senate adopted it on August 8, reflecting bipartisan interest in avoiding a funding lapse ahead of the November midterms. Recent history of extended 2026 shutdowns has reinforced incentives for early stopgap action, with the House Appropriations Committee highlighting the bill as a proactive step to maintain operations while full-year negotiations continue. This legislative momentum underpins trader consensus that a lapse on October 1 remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado13% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
13% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have advanced a short-term continuing resolution (H.R. 9770) to fund federal agencies at fiscal year 2026 levels through December 4, 2026, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of current appropriations. The House passed the measure in July, and the Senate adopted it on August 8, reflecting bipartisan interest in avoiding a funding lapse ahead of the November midterms. Recent history of extended 2026 shutdowns has reinforced incentives for early stopgap action, with the House Appropriations Committee highlighting the bill as a proactive step to maintain operations while full-year negotiations continue. This legislative momentum underpins trader consensus that a lapse on October 1 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Volumen
$1,319Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have advanced a short-term continuing resolution (H.R. 9770) to fund federal agencies at fiscal year 2026 levels through December 4, 2026, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of current appropriations. The House passed the measure in July, and the Senate adopted it on August 8, reflecting bipartisan interest in avoiding a funding lapse ahead of the November midterms. Recent history of extended 2026 shutdowns has reinforced incentives for early stopgap action, with the House Appropriations Committee highlighting the bill as a proactive step to maintain operations while full-year negotiations continue. This legislative momentum underpins trader consensus that a lapse on October 1 remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,319Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional leaders have advanced a short-term continuing resolution (H.R. 9770) to fund federal agencies at fiscal year 2026 levels through December 4, 2026, directly addressing the September 30 expiration of current appropriations. The House passed the measure in July, and the Senate adopted it on August 8, reflecting bipartisan interest in avoiding a funding lapse ahead of the November midterms. Recent history of extended 2026 shutdowns has reinforced incentives for early stopgap action, with the House Appropriations Committee highlighting the bill as a proactive step to maintain operations while full-year negotiations continue. This legislative momentum underpins trader consensus that a lapse on October 1 remains unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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