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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

icon for ¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.5%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.0%

Polymarket

$45,700 Vol.

Noel Thomas 44%

Seán Kyne 32.5%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 10.4%

Mike Cubbard 9.0%

Polymarket

$45,700 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$3,512 Vol.

32%

Niall Murphy

$1,833 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,638 Vol.

10%

Orla Nugent

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$3,875 Vol.

8%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,031 Vol.

44%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,107 Vol.

9%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Vol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).With the Galway West Dáil by-election set for May 22 following Catherine Connolly's presidential victory, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 43.5% implied probability, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 32.4%, reflecting Thomas's momentum in the latest TG4 poll where he surged to 16% (+7 versus 2024 general election share) amid local appeals on immigration and fuel protests. Kyne's slim poll lead at 17% has narrowed post a May 12 report alleging his involvement in a blackmail scandal against a former agency CEO, eroding government party support. Fragmented field with 17 candidates, including Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll, 7.6% market) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10.4%), makes PR-STV transfers decisive amid housing crisis debates and voter apathy.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$45,700
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).With the Galway West Dáil by-election set for May 22 following Catherine Connolly's presidential victory, trader consensus on Polymarket positions Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas as the frontrunner at 43.5% implied probability, ahead of Fine Gael's Seán Kyne at 32.4%, reflecting Thomas's momentum in the latest TG4 poll where he surged to 16% (+7 versus 2024 general election share) amid local appeals on immigration and fuel protests. Kyne's slim poll lead at 17% has narrowed post a May 12 report alleging his involvement in a blackmail scandal against a former agency CEO, eroding government party support. Fragmented field with 17 candidates, including Labour's Helen Ogbu (12% in poll, 7.6% market) and Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (10.4%), makes PR-STV transfers decisive amid housing crisis debates and voter apathy.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$45,700
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Noel Thomas" con 44%, seguido de "Seán Kyne" con 32%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 44¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" ha generado $45.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es "Noel Thomas" con 44%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 44% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Seán Kyne" con 32%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.