Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to 0 basis points—with April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year on a 0.6% monthly rise, the hottest since May 2023 and well above March's 3.3%, fueling inflation fears and prompting even hike odds on CME FedWatch. Resilient labor data, including April's steady 4.3% unemployment rate and 115,000 jobs added, supports the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Brokerages like BofA now eye no easing until 2027, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics; a single 25 bps cut carries 16.5% odds. Watch May PCE and June 3-4 FOMC for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0 (0 bps) 69.2%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 17%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 7%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 3.0%
$25,913,337 Vol.
$25,913,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
69%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
17%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
7%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
1%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
1%
6 (150 pb)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
<1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
1%
0 (0 bps) 69.2%
1 (25 puntos básicos) 17%
2 (50 puntos básicos) 7%
3 (75 puntos básicos) 3.0%
$25,913,337 Vol.
$25,913,337 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$4,055,652 Vol.
69%
1 (25 puntos básicos)
$1,213,204 Vol.
17%
2 (50 puntos básicos)
$1,170,364 Vol.
7%
3 (75 puntos básicos)
$1,064,168 Vol.
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 4 (100 puntos básicos)
$1,142,755 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo de elementos: 5 (125 bps)
$1,377,238 Vol.
1%
6 (150 pb)
$2,433,575 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$1,089,712 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 puntos básicos)
$1,684,793 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 puntos básicos)
$2,400,464 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 puntos básicos)
$3,010,194 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 puntos básicos)
$3,183,316 Vol.
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: 12+ (300+ puntos básicos)
$2,087,902 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to 0 basis points—with April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year on a 0.6% monthly rise, the hottest since May 2023 and well above March's 3.3%, fueling inflation fears and prompting even hike odds on CME FedWatch. Resilient labor data, including April's steady 4.3% unemployment rate and 115,000 jobs added, supports the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Brokerages like BofA now eye no easing until 2027, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics; a single 25 bps cut carries 16.5% odds. Watch May PCE and June 3-4 FOMC for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volumen
$25,913,337Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to 0 basis points—with April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year on a 0.6% monthly rise, the hottest since May 2023 and well above March's 3.3%, fueling inflation fears and prompting even hike odds on CME FedWatch. Resilient labor data, including April's steady 4.3% unemployment rate and 115,000 jobs added, supports the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Brokerages like BofA now eye no easing until 2027, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics; a single 25 bps cut carries 16.5% odds. Watch May PCE and June 3-4 FOMC for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volumen
$25,913,337Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—equating to 0 basis points—with April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year on a 0.6% monthly rise, the hottest since May 2023 and well above March's 3.3%, fueling inflation fears and prompting even hike odds on CME FedWatch. Resilient labor data, including April's steady 4.3% unemployment rate and 115,000 jobs added, supports the Fed's April 29 decision to hold the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissents. Brokerages like BofA now eye no easing until 2027, reflecting sticky inflation dynamics; a single 25 bps cut carries 16.5% odds. Watch May PCE and June 3-4 FOMC for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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