Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
¿Israel se retira del Líbano por...?
$6,396,099 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de junio
<1%
July 31
4%
31 de agosto
8%
30 de septiembre
13%
31 de diciembre
23%
$6,396,099 Vol.
30 de junio
$3,120,099 Vol.
<1%
July 31
$1,304,315 Vol.
4%
31 de agosto
$288,175 Vol.
8%
30 de septiembre
$20,352 Vol.
13%
31 de diciembre
$47,710 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET
Volumen
$6,396,099Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$6,396,099Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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