Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have prioritized coordinated efforts to topple the Islamic Republic over any formal declaration of independence, as evidenced by the February 2026 formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, whose platform centers on self-determination within a post-regime framework rather than secession. Iranian security forces responded with intensified operations, including IRGC actions that dismantled militant infrastructure by late April, leaving no sustained momentum for territorial assertions by PJAK, PDKI, Komala, or PAK. Fragmented leadership, limited resources, and absence of external backing in Iran's unitary structure further constrain such an outcome before the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline. Trader consensus at 95.3% "No" reflects these structural barriers, though a sudden regime collapse or large-scale foreign-backed uprising could still introduce volatility.