**Forecast models indicate the minimum temperature in Cape Town on August 29 will most likely fall between 10–12°C, driving the tight clustering of market probabilities around those levels (11°C at 30.5%, 10°C at 27%, 12°C at 27%).** A passing low-pressure system with southerly winds is advecting cooler maritime air while producing light rain and extensive cloud cover, which limits both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Hourly guidance from sources such as Yr.no and WindBorne shows temperatures bottoming out near 12–13°C in the early hours and again late on the 29th, with only modest further drops possible under the prevailing wind and moisture. This setup contrasts with clearer, calmer conditions that would allow stronger surface cooling toward 8–9°C. The modest spread in outcomes reflects typical ensemble uncertainty in the exact timing of the front’s passage and local topographic effects around Cape Town International Airport versus the city bowl. No major model disagreement appears in the current runs, supporting the narrow range of trader-implied odds.