Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service equivalents indicate Warsaw's overnight minimum on August 26 will likely fall between 11–13°C, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies promoting radiative cooling after daytime highs near 23°C, with light easterly winds limiting mixing. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread due to variable cloud cover and dew point trends, placing the mode near historical late-August baselines of 12–13°C while accounting for recent cooler nights observed across central Poland. Traders' closely bunched probabilities around these thresholds reflect the narrow forecast uncertainty window, with lower odds assigned to outliers below 10°C or above 14°C absent major shifts in steering patterns or precipitation before the measurement period closes.