Ongoing bilateral negotiations through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, center on selective Section 301 tariff rollbacks, critical minerals access, and agricultural purchase commitments without any public timeline or framework agreement set for completion by late August. Prior tactical truces from November 2025 and the resulting extension of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026 have reduced immediate pressure for a new deal, while the technical complexity of outstanding issues supports trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% implied probability against resolution. A sudden joint statement from senior officials or accelerated progress on the roughly $30 billion rollback mechanism could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
3% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, center on selective Section 301 tariff rollbacks, critical minerals access, and agricultural purchase commitments without any public timeline or framework agreement set for completion by late August. Prior tactical truces from November 2025 and the resulting extension of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026 have reduced immediate pressure for a new deal, while the technical complexity of outstanding issues supports trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% implied probability against resolution. A sudden joint statement from senior officials or accelerated progress on the roughly $30 billion rollback mechanism could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volumen
$2,410Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral negotiations through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, center on selective Section 301 tariff rollbacks, critical minerals access, and agricultural purchase commitments without any public timeline or framework agreement set for completion by late August. Prior tactical truces from November 2025 and the resulting extension of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026 have reduced immediate pressure for a new deal, while the technical complexity of outstanding issues supports trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% implied probability against resolution. A sudden joint statement from senior officials or accelerated progress on the roughly $30 billion rollback mechanism could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,410Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral negotiations through the U.S.-China Board of Trade, established after the May 2026 summit, center on selective Section 301 tariff rollbacks, critical minerals access, and agricultural purchase commitments without any public timeline or framework agreement set for completion by late August. Prior tactical truces from November 2025 and the resulting extension of reciprocal tariff suspensions until November 2026 have reduced immediate pressure for a new deal, while the technical complexity of outstanding issues supports trader consensus reflected in the 96.9% implied probability against resolution. A sudden joint statement from senior officials or accelerated progress on the roughly $30 billion rollback mechanism could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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