The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuál de estos republicanos será el primero en anunciar una candidatura a la presidencia?
¿Cuál de estos republicanos será el primero en anunciar una candidatura a la presidencia?
Ted Cruz 39%
Ron DeSantis 27%
Rand Paul 22%
J.D. Vance 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2027
Ted Cruz
39%
Ron DeSantis
27%
Rand Paul
22%
J.D. Vance
5%
Marco Rubio
4%
Donald Trump Jr.
3%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
3%
Glenn Youngkin
3%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Donald Trump
2%
Ted Cruz 39%
Ron DeSantis 27%
Rand Paul 22%
J.D. Vance 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2027
Ted Cruz
$84 Vol.
39%
Ron DeSantis
$129 Vol.
27%
Rand Paul
$58 Vol.
22%
J.D. Vance
$80 Vol.
5%
Marco Rubio
$68 Vol.
4%
Donald Trump Jr.
$58 Vol.
3%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$57 Vol.
3%
Glenn Youngkin
$58 Vol.
3%
Vivek Ramaswamy
$63 Vol.
2%
Donald Trump
$63 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 21, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volumen
$716Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 21, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$716Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 21, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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