Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea during the first week of May 2026, including Iskander systems, coastal radars, and airfields, continue a pattern of targeted attrition rather than ground advances toward the peninsula. With front lines remaining hundreds of kilometers distant and Russian forces maintaining defensive depth, any territorial recapture by the June 30 resolution date faces insurmountable logistical and operational barriers. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no reflects these realities, consistent with the absence of announced Ukrainian counteroffensives or shifts in Western military aid that could enable such a rapid operation. Potential late developments, such as unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs in ongoing ceasefire discussions or major Russian withdrawals, remain the only plausible variables that could alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
¿Recuperará Ucrania el territorio de Crimea para el 30 de junio de 2026?
Sí
$658,142 Vol.
$658,142 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$658,142 Vol.
$658,142 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea during the first week of May 2026, including Iskander systems, coastal radars, and airfields, continue a pattern of targeted attrition rather than ground advances toward the peninsula. With front lines remaining hundreds of kilometers distant and Russian forces maintaining defensive depth, any territorial recapture by the June 30 resolution date faces insurmountable logistical and operational barriers. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no reflects these realities, consistent with the absence of announced Ukrainian counteroffensives or shifts in Western military aid that could enable such a rapid operation. Potential late developments, such as unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs in ongoing ceasefire discussions or major Russian withdrawals, remain the only plausible variables that could alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$658,142Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea during the first week of May 2026, including Iskander systems, coastal radars, and airfields, continue a pattern of targeted attrition rather than ground advances toward the peninsula. With front lines remaining hundreds of kilometers distant and Russian forces maintaining defensive depth, any territorial recapture by the June 30 resolution date faces insurmountable logistical and operational barriers. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no reflects these realities, consistent with the absence of announced Ukrainian counteroffensives or shifts in Western military aid that could enable such a rapid operation. Potential late developments, such as unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs in ongoing ceasefire discussions or major Russian withdrawals, remain the only plausible variables that could alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volumen
$658,142Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian military assets in occupied Crimea during the first week of May 2026, including Iskander systems, coastal radars, and airfields, continue a pattern of targeted attrition rather than ground advances toward the peninsula. With front lines remaining hundreds of kilometers distant and Russian forces maintaining defensive depth, any territorial recapture by the June 30 resolution date faces insurmountable logistical and operational barriers. Trader consensus at 98.7 percent for no reflects these realities, consistent with the absence of announced Ukrainian counteroffensives or shifts in Western military aid that could enable such a rapid operation. Potential late developments, such as unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs in ongoing ceasefire discussions or major Russian withdrawals, remain the only plausible variables that could alter the outcome within the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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