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icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Jun 10

Jun 10

1st hottest 52%

2nd hottest 37%

3rd hottest 9.2%

4th or lower 2.7%

Polymarket

$85,455 Vol.

1st hottest 52%

2nd hottest 37%

3rd hottest 9.2%

4th or lower 2.7%

Polymarket

$85,455 Vol.

1st hottest

$7,069 Vol.

52%

2nd hottest

$1,212 Vol.

37%

3rd hottest

$35,719 Vol.

9%

4th or lower

$41,455 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.April 2026 ranked as the joint third-warmest April on record globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service data released May 8, with surface air temperatures 0.52°C above the 1991-2020 average, trailing only 2024 and 2025—setting a warm baseline for May amid an emerging El Niño favored by NOAA at 61% odds starting May-July. Early May observations show elevated sea surface temperatures and above-normal land forecasts nearly worldwide per WMO outlooks, boosting trader consensus for May 2026 to claim top rankings against recent records like May 2024's hottest. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists from model ensembles, next Copernicus and NOAA updates around early June will refine trajectories as the month progresses.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$85,455
End Date
Jun 10, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.April 2026 ranked as the joint third-warmest April on record globally per Copernicus Climate Change Service data released May 8, with surface air temperatures 0.52°C above the 1991-2020 average, trailing only 2024 and 2025—setting a warm baseline for May amid an emerging El Niño favored by NOAA at 61% odds starting May-July. Early May observations show elevated sea surface temperatures and above-normal land forecasts nearly worldwide per WMO outlooks, boosting trader consensus for May 2026 to claim top rankings against recent records like May 2024's hottest. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists from model ensembles, next Copernicus and NOAA updates around early June will refine trajectories as the month progresses.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$85,455
End Date
Jun 10, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1st hottest" at 52%, followed by "2nd hottest" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" has generated $85.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" is "1st hottest" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2nd hottest" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.