Recent IMF projections downgraded 2026 global GDP growth to 3.1 percent in April, reflecting the economic drag from elevated energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, a shift from the 3.3 percent January forecast. This aligns closely with the tightly clustered Polymarket outcomes, where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 3.6 percent and 3.1 percent amid uncertainty over conflict duration, inflation trajectories, and policy responses. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation that could support faster expansion in emerging markets, revisions to advanced-economy labor data, and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary easing that might influence capital flows and risk appetite. These dynamics highlight the market's balanced assessment of downside geopolitical risks versus resilient private-sector adaptability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
≤2.9% 14%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 3.1%
3.7%+ 1.8%
$17,411 Vol.
$17,411 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
14%
3.0%
35%
3.1%
34%
3.2%
35%
3.3%
3%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
35%
3.7%+
22%
≤2.9% 14%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 3.1%
3.7%+ 1.8%
$17,411 Vol.
$17,411 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,756 Vol.
14%
3.0%
$481 Vol.
35%
3.1%
$470 Vol.
34%
3.2%
$1,691 Vol.
35%
3.3%
$3,242 Vol.
3%
3.4%
$3,527 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$3,006 Vol.
1%
3.6%
$452 Vol.
35%
3.7%+
$787 Vol.
22%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections downgraded 2026 global GDP growth to 3.1 percent in April, reflecting the economic drag from elevated energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, a shift from the 3.3 percent January forecast. This aligns closely with the tightly clustered Polymarket outcomes, where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 3.6 percent and 3.1 percent amid uncertainty over conflict duration, inflation trajectories, and policy responses. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation that could support faster expansion in emerging markets, revisions to advanced-economy labor data, and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary easing that might influence capital flows and risk appetite. These dynamics highlight the market's balanced assessment of downside geopolitical risks versus resilient private-sector adaptability.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,411End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections downgraded 2026 global GDP growth to 3.1 percent in April, reflecting the economic drag from elevated energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, a shift from the 3.3 percent January forecast. This aligns closely with the tightly clustered Polymarket outcomes, where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 3.6 percent and 3.1 percent amid uncertainty over conflict duration, inflation trajectories, and policy responses. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation that could support faster expansion in emerging markets, revisions to advanced-economy labor data, and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary easing that might influence capital flows and risk appetite. These dynamics highlight the market's balanced assessment of downside geopolitical risks versus resilient private-sector adaptability.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,411End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent IMF projections downgraded 2026 global GDP growth to 3.1 percent in April, reflecting the economic drag from elevated energy prices and supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict, a shift from the 3.3 percent January forecast. This aligns closely with the tightly clustered Polymarket outcomes, where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 3.6 percent and 3.1 percent amid uncertainty over conflict duration, inflation trajectories, and policy responses. Key swing factors include potential de-escalation that could support faster expansion in emerging markets, revisions to advanced-economy labor data, and upcoming FOMC communications on monetary easing that might influence capital flows and risk appetite. These dynamics highlight the market's balanced assessment of downside geopolitical risks versus resilient private-sector adaptability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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