Recent OECD and UN forecasts place 2026 global GDP growth at 2.6–2.9%, reflecting resilience amid the Middle East energy shock and elevated Brent crude near $100 per barrel. Inflation pressures and higher real interest rates continue to weigh on consumption and investment in advanced economies, while AI-related capital spending and productivity gains provide support, particularly in the US and parts of Asia. Consensus estimates from Fitch and FocusEconomics cluster near 2.5–2.6%, underscoring subdued momentum below pre-pandemic averages. With Polymarket odds tightly bunched between ≤2.9% and 3.2%, traders appear focused on upcoming data releases and potential de-escalation in geopolitical tensions as key variables that could shift the distribution.