**The Milei administration’s crawling exchange-rate band regime, with ceilings and floors adjusting monthly in line with lagged inflation data, has kept the official wholesale USD/ARS rate near 1,514 in September 2026—up only about 4% year-to-date while cumulative inflation has run higher.** This policy mix, supported by reserve accumulation above $50 billion, fiscal surpluses, and interventions via dollar-linked instruments, has produced real peso appreciation and contained nominal depreciation, aligning with the government’s 2027 budget projection of roughly 1,600 by year-end and analyst consensus forecasts clustered around 1,645. Market-implied odds therefore place the highest probability on outcomes below 1,700, reflecting trader confidence in continued gradual adjustment within the wide band (currently near 1,900 ceiling) rather than sharp devaluation. Key near-term influences include the third IMF program review, upcoming INDEC inflation prints that will set band crawl rates, and export performance amid elevated oil and crop prices, all of which could reinforce or test the current controlled path through December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,053 Vol.
$22,053 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<1600.00
46%
1600.00–1699.99
33%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
3%
1900.00–1999.99
19%
2000.00+
4%
$22,053 Vol.
$22,053 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<1600.00
$2,546 Vol.
46%
1600.00–1699.99
$2,035 Vol.
33%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,203 Vol.
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,709 Vol.
3%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,772 Vol.
19%
2000.00+
$1,788 Vol.
4%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**The Milei administration’s crawling exchange-rate band regime, with ceilings and floors adjusting monthly in line with lagged inflation data, has kept the official wholesale USD/ARS rate near 1,514 in September 2026—up only about 4% year-to-date while cumulative inflation has run higher.** This policy mix, supported by reserve accumulation above $50 billion, fiscal surpluses, and interventions via dollar-linked instruments, has produced real peso appreciation and contained nominal depreciation, aligning with the government’s 2027 budget projection of roughly 1,600 by year-end and analyst consensus forecasts clustered around 1,645. Market-implied odds therefore place the highest probability on outcomes below 1,700, reflecting trader confidence in continued gradual adjustment within the wide band (currently near 1,900 ceiling) rather than sharp devaluation. Key near-term influences include the third IMF program review, upcoming INDEC inflation prints that will set band crawl rates, and export performance amid elevated oil and crop prices, all of which could reinforce or test the current controlled path through December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,053End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**The Milei administration’s crawling exchange-rate band regime, with ceilings and floors adjusting monthly in line with lagged inflation data, has kept the official wholesale USD/ARS rate near 1,514 in September 2026—up only about 4% year-to-date while cumulative inflation has run higher.** This policy mix, supported by reserve accumulation above $50 billion, fiscal surpluses, and interventions via dollar-linked instruments, has produced real peso appreciation and contained nominal depreciation, aligning with the government’s 2027 budget projection of roughly 1,600 by year-end and analyst consensus forecasts clustered around 1,645. Market-implied odds therefore place the highest probability on outcomes below 1,700, reflecting trader confidence in continued gradual adjustment within the wide band (currently near 1,900 ceiling) rather than sharp devaluation. Key near-term influences include the third IMF program review, upcoming INDEC inflation prints that will set band crawl rates, and export performance amid elevated oil and crop prices, all of which could reinforce or test the current controlled path through December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$22,053End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**The Milei administration’s crawling exchange-rate band regime, with ceilings and floors adjusting monthly in line with lagged inflation data, has kept the official wholesale USD/ARS rate near 1,514 in September 2026—up only about 4% year-to-date while cumulative inflation has run higher.** This policy mix, supported by reserve accumulation above $50 billion, fiscal surpluses, and interventions via dollar-linked instruments, has produced real peso appreciation and contained nominal depreciation, aligning with the government’s 2027 budget projection of roughly 1,600 by year-end and analyst consensus forecasts clustered around 1,645. Market-implied odds therefore place the highest probability on outcomes below 1,700, reflecting trader confidence in continued gradual adjustment within the wide band (currently near 1,900 ceiling) rather than sharp devaluation. Key near-term influences include the third IMF program review, upcoming INDEC inflation prints that will set band crawl rates, and export performance amid elevated oil and crop prices, all of which could reinforce or test the current controlled path through December.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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