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icon for Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner
Politics·Midterms

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

icon for Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner
Politics·Midterms

Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW
icon for Democrat

Democrat

$1,408 Vol.

82%

icon for Republican

Republican

$1,081 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes maintains a polling edge over Republican nominee Alexander Kolodin in the November 3, 2026 general election, with surveys from August showing Fontes ahead by 4 to 11 points among likely voters and undecided shares ranging from 12% to 21%. Fontes secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Kolodin defeated former state GOP chair Gina Swoboda in the Republican contest. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as Likely Democratic as of early September. These dynamics, combined with Fontes’ 2022 victory margin and Arizona’s recent statewide voting patterns, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome over the Republican alternative, with limited movement from subsequent developments.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,489
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 7:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes maintains a polling edge over Republican nominee Alexander Kolodin in the November 3, 2026 general election, with surveys from August showing Fontes ahead by 4 to 11 points among likely voters and undecided shares ranging from 12% to 21%. Fontes secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Kolodin defeated former state GOP chair Gina Swoboda in the Republican contest. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the race as Likely Democratic as of early September. These dynamics, combined with Fontes’ 2022 victory margin and Arizona’s recent statewide voting patterns, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome over the Republican alternative, with limited movement from subsequent developments.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,489
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 7:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Democrat" at 82%, followed by "Republican" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner" is "Democrat" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Republican" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.