**Sustained cohesion within Cuba’s Communist Party leadership and security apparatus, alongside U.S. signals of a longer timeline, underpins the 89.5% implied probability that the regime will not fall in 2026.** Severe economic contraction, recurring nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages, and expanded U.S. sanctions under the Trump administration—including measures targeting state enterprises and officials—have intensified pressure through September. Cuban authorities responded with 176 economic reforms in June expanding private-sector scope, while backchannel talks with Washington collapsed earlier. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated in August that the regime could endure into 2028 or beyond, reflecting a policy emphasis on persistence rather than immediate rupture. The military and party structures have shown no major fractures, and repression has contained unrest despite widespread hardship. With only months remaining in the year, these factors align with trader consensus that structural barriers and institutional continuity make regime change before year-end unlikely.