The Cuban regime under President Miguel Díaz-Canel maintains firm institutional control through centralized security forces, surveillance systems, and party structures, even as severe energy shortages, fuel blockades, and a projected GDP contraction exceeding 6 percent in 2026 intensify economic strain following the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies. US sanctions and diplomatic pressure have not produced elite fractures or sustained domestic opposition capable of forcing change before year-end, supporting trader consensus on the low likelihood of regime collapse. Historical resilience against external coercion and the absence of viable succession alternatives further anchor this positioning. Developments that could still shift probabilities include negotiated elite transitions, intensified US military or financial measures, or unexpected internal divisions within the military and intelligence apparatus.