Recent elevated posting patterns on X, with Musk often exceeding 20 daily contributions including replies and commentary on current events, anchor trader expectations for the July 2–4 window around the 40–89 range. The closely matched 41.5% and 36% probabilities on the leading brackets reflect uncertainty over holiday weekend dynamics, as Independence Day typically moderates platform activity while sustained engagement on politics, tech, and cultural topics can sustain momentum. Historical volume during active stretches and the lack of major product launches or breaking developments this week create the tight contest, with any late surge in replies or threads the key swing factor traders are weighing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets July 2 - July 4, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets July 2 - July 4, 2026?
40-64 42%
65-89 35%
<40 24%
90-114 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 4, 2026
<40
24%
40-64
42%
65-89
35%
90-114
26%
115-139
3%
140-164
3%
165-189
3%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 42%
65-89 35%
<40 24%
90-114 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 4, 2026
<40
$0 Vol.
24%
40-64
$0 Vol.
42%
65-89
$0 Vol.
35%
90-114
$57 Vol.
26%
115-139
$0 Vol.
3%
140-164
$70 Vol.
3%
165-189
$40 Vol.
3%
190-214
$40 Vol.
1%
215-239
$10 Vol.
1%
240+
$540 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 2 12:00 PM ET to July 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent elevated posting patterns on X, with Musk often exceeding 20 daily contributions including replies and commentary on current events, anchor trader expectations for the July 2–4 window around the 40–89 range. The closely matched 41.5% and 36% probabilities on the leading brackets reflect uncertainty over holiday weekend dynamics, as Independence Day typically moderates platform activity while sustained engagement on politics, tech, and cultural topics can sustain momentum. Historical volume during active stretches and the lack of major product launches or breaking developments this week create the tight contest, with any late surge in replies or threads the key swing factor traders are weighing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 2 12:00 PM ET to July 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$757End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 2 12:00 PM ET to July 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent elevated posting patterns on X, with Musk often exceeding 20 daily contributions including replies and commentary on current events, anchor trader expectations for the July 2–4 window around the 40–89 range. The closely matched 41.5% and 36% probabilities on the leading brackets reflect uncertainty over holiday weekend dynamics, as Independence Day typically moderates platform activity while sustained engagement on politics, tech, and cultural topics can sustain momentum. Historical volume during active stretches and the lack of major product launches or breaking developments this week create the tight contest, with any late surge in replies or threads the key swing factor traders are weighing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 2 12:00 PM ET to July 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$757End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated posting patterns on X, with Musk often exceeding 20 daily contributions including replies and commentary on current events, anchor trader expectations for the July 2–4 window around the 40–89 range. The closely matched 41.5% and 36% probabilities on the leading brackets reflect uncertainty over holiday weekend dynamics, as Independence Day typically moderates platform activity while sustained engagement on politics, tech, and cultural topics can sustain momentum. Historical volume during active stretches and the lack of major product launches or breaking developments this week create the tight contest, with any late surge in replies or threads the key swing factor traders are weighing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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