Grok 4.20 released on...?
$158,540 Vol.
No release by January 31 45.6%
January 20 7.4%
January 16 7.3%
January 21 7.2%
January 11
$3,138 Vol.
3%
January 11
$3,138 Vol.
3%
January 12
$1,329 Vol.
1%
January 12
$1,329 Vol.
1%
January 13
$460 Vol.
2%
January 13
$460 Vol.
2%
January 14
$498 Vol.
2%
January 14
$498 Vol.
2%
January 15
$802 Vol.
4%
January 15
$802 Vol.
4%
January 16
$2,177 Vol.
7%
January 16
$2,177 Vol.
7%
January 17
$433 Vol.
2%
January 17
$433 Vol.
2%
January 18
$1,765 Vol.
3%
January 18
$1,765 Vol.
3%
January 19
$1,850 Vol.
5%
January 19
$1,850 Vol.
5%
January 20
$1,754 Vol.
7%
January 20
$1,754 Vol.
7%
January 21
$1,373 Vol.
7%
January 21
$1,373 Vol.
7%
January 22
$866 Vol.
3%
January 22
$866 Vol.
3%
January 23
$2,462 Vol.
5%
January 23
$2,462 Vol.
5%
January 24
$836 Vol.
2%
January 24
$836 Vol.
2%
January 25
$530 Vol.
3%
January 25
$530 Vol.
3%
January 26
$1,425 Vol.
6%
January 26
$1,425 Vol.
6%
January 27
$701 Vol.
2%
January 27
$701 Vol.
2%
January 28
$517 Vol.
6%
January 28
$517 Vol.
6%
January 29
$593 Vol.
4%
January 29
$593 Vol.
4%
January 30
$738 Vol.
5%
January 30
$738 Vol.
5%
January 31
$539 Vol.
6%
January 31
$539 Vol.
6%
No release by January 31
$9,350 Vol.
46%
No release by January 31
$9,350 Vol.
46%
Rules
This market will resolve to "No release by January 31" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.
Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 9:46 PM UTC
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...$158,540 Vol.
Grok 4.20 released on...?
No release by January 31 45.6%
January 20 7.4%
January 16 7.3%
January 21 7.2%
January 11
3%
January 12
1%
January 13
2%
January 14
2%
January 15
4%
January 16
7%
January 17
2%
January 18
3%
January 19
5%
January 20
7%
January 21
7%
January 22
3%
January 23
5%
January 24
2%
January 25
3%
January 26
6%
January 27
2%
January 28
6%
January 29
4%
January 30
5%
January 31
6%
No release by January 31
46%
About
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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