Current ensemble forecasts from European models show substantial spread in expected maximum temperatures for Helsinki on July 26, centering near the long-term July average of 20–22 °C and producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across 20–22 °C outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability driven by shifting jet-stream patterns, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and the balance between warm continental air advection versus cooler Baltic maritime influence. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF runs will continue updating through the weekend, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Helsinki-Vantaa station. Traders appear to be pricing in both the climatological baseline and the inherent limits of 48–72 hour predictability for peak daily temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on July 26?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 26?
22°C or higher 39%
20°C 28%
21°C 23%
17°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
9%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
28%
21°C
23%
22°C or higher
39%
22°C or higher 39%
20°C 28%
21°C 23%
17°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
12°C or below
$32 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$32 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$146 Vol.
1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
2%
17°C
$6 Vol.
9%
18°C
$0 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$0 Vol.
28%
21°C
$10 Vol.
23%
22°C or higher
$474 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European models show substantial spread in expected maximum temperatures for Helsinki on July 26, centering near the long-term July average of 20–22 °C and producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across 20–22 °C outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability driven by shifting jet-stream patterns, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and the balance between warm continental air advection versus cooler Baltic maritime influence. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF runs will continue updating through the weekend, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Helsinki-Vantaa station. Traders appear to be pricing in both the climatological baseline and the inherent limits of 48–72 hour predictability for peak daily temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$756End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from European models show substantial spread in expected maximum temperatures for Helsinki on July 26, centering near the long-term July average of 20–22 °C and producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across 20–22 °C outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability driven by shifting jet-stream patterns, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and the balance between warm continental air advection versus cooler Baltic maritime influence. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF runs will continue updating through the weekend, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Helsinki-Vantaa station. Traders appear to be pricing in both the climatological baseline and the inherent limits of 48–72 hour predictability for peak daily temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$756End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from European models show substantial spread in expected maximum temperatures for Helsinki on July 26, centering near the long-term July average of 20–22 °C and producing the tight clustering of market-implied odds across 20–22 °C outcomes. This reflects typical late-summer variability driven by shifting jet-stream patterns, North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, and the balance between warm continental air advection versus cooler Baltic maritime influence. Official guidance from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF runs will continue updating through the weekend, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Helsinki-Vantaa station. Traders appear to be pricing in both the climatological baseline and the inherent limits of 48–72 hour predictability for peak daily temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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