**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on July 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?
29°C 29%
30°C 29%
31°C 19%
28°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
5%
28°C
13%
29°C
29%
30°C
29%
31°C
19%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 29%
30°C 29%
31°C 19%
28°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
$406 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$44 Vol.
1%
26°C
$49 Vol.
2%
27°C
$26 Vol.
5%
28°C
$116 Vol.
13%
29°C
$182 Vol.
29%
30°C
$32 Vol.
29%
31°C
$162 Vol.
19%
32°C
$169 Vol.
6%
33°C
$172 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$364 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,722End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,722End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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