Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?
39°C 47%
40°C 36%
41°C 13%
38°C 8%
NEW
$18,385 Vol.
NEW
$18,385 Vol.
Jul 22, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
2%
38°C
8%
39°C
47%
40°C
36%
41°C
13%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 47%
40°C 36%
41°C 13%
38°C 8%
NEW
$18,385 Vol.
NEW
$18,385 Vol.
Jul 22, 2026
34°C or below
$241 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$630 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$707 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,259 Vol.
2%
38°C
$3,144 Vol.
8%
39°C
$2,419 Vol.
47%
40°C
$6,204 Vol.
36%
41°C
$2,499 Vol.
13%
42°C
$585 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$18,385End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,385End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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