Short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and global models currently anchor trader sentiment around a Munich high of 22–23 °C for July 21, with 23 °C holding the narrow lead at 35.5 % implied probability. Light northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical mid-July radiative heating support modest daytime warming without strong advection or convective cooling. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 21–24 °C, reflecting low uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over southern Bavaria. A modest trough passage or unexpected increase in low-level cloud could trim the peak by 1–2 °C, while clearer skies and slightly drier air would favor the upper end of that range. Updated 48-hour guidance expected later today will likely determine whether the 22 °C or 23 °C bracket consolidates further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on July 21?
Highest temperature in Munich on July 21?
23°C 51%
22°C 26%
24°C 20%
21°C 6.2%
NEW
$30,220 Vol.
NEW
$30,220 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
6%
22°C
26%
23°C
51%
24°C
20%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 51%
22°C 26%
24°C 20%
21°C 6.2%
NEW
$30,220 Vol.
NEW
$30,220 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
18°C or below
$235 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$679 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$880 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,568 Vol.
6%
22°C
$8,284 Vol.
26%
23°C
$5,870 Vol.
51%
24°C
$2,860 Vol.
20%
25°C
$2,325 Vol.
2%
26°C
$585 Vol.
1%
27°C
$3,470 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$3,463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and global models currently anchor trader sentiment around a Munich high of 22–23 °C for July 21, with 23 °C holding the narrow lead at 35.5 % implied probability. Light northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical mid-July radiative heating support modest daytime warming without strong advection or convective cooling. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 21–24 °C, reflecting low uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over southern Bavaria. A modest trough passage or unexpected increase in low-level cloud could trim the peak by 1–2 °C, while clearer skies and slightly drier air would favor the upper end of that range. Updated 48-hour guidance expected later today will likely determine whether the 22 °C or 23 °C bracket consolidates further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$30,220End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and global models currently anchor trader sentiment around a Munich high of 22–23 °C for July 21, with 23 °C holding the narrow lead at 35.5 % implied probability. Light northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical mid-July radiative heating support modest daytime warming without strong advection or convective cooling. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 21–24 °C, reflecting low uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over southern Bavaria. A modest trough passage or unexpected increase in low-level cloud could trim the peak by 1–2 °C, while clearer skies and slightly drier air would favor the upper end of that range. Updated 48-hour guidance expected later today will likely determine whether the 22 °C or 23 °C bracket consolidates further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,220End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and global models currently anchor trader sentiment around a Munich high of 22–23 °C for July 21, with 23 °C holding the narrow lead at 35.5 % implied probability. Light northwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and typical mid-July radiative heating support modest daytime warming without strong advection or convective cooling. Recent model runs show tight clustering between 21–24 °C, reflecting low uncertainty in steering patterns and boundary-layer moisture over southern Bavaria. A modest trough passage or unexpected increase in low-level cloud could trim the peak by 1–2 °C, while clearer skies and slightly drier air would favor the upper end of that range. Updated 48-hour guidance expected later today will likely determine whether the 22 °C or 23 °C bracket consolidates further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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