Active southwest monsoon conditions and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms are the main drivers moderating Manila's daytime highs for July 23, with official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicating 31–33°C maxima amid 60% rain probabilities. In Manila's tropical monsoon climate, reduced solar insolation from convective clouds typically caps peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, while high humidity and the urban heat island sustain baseline warmth near the 33°C July average. ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña add little anomalous forcing this season. Recent 24–48 hour observations show similar partly cloudy patterns yielding 32–34°C readings, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C outcomes and underscoring uncertainty from variable thunderstorm timing and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 23?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 23?
33°C 39%
34°C 32%
32°C 18%
35°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
3%
31°C
4%
32°C
18%
33°C
39%
34°C
32%
35°C
9%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 39%
34°C 32%
32°C 18%
35°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 23, 2026
27°C or below
$376 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$46 Vol.
1%
30°C
$65 Vol.
3%
31°C
$84 Vol.
4%
32°C
$125 Vol.
18%
33°C
$71 Vol.
39%
34°C
$41 Vol.
32%
35°C
$34 Vol.
9%
36°C
$160 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$292 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon conditions and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms are the main drivers moderating Manila's daytime highs for July 23, with official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicating 31–33°C maxima amid 60% rain probabilities. In Manila's tropical monsoon climate, reduced solar insolation from convective clouds typically caps peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, while high humidity and the urban heat island sustain baseline warmth near the 33°C July average. ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña add little anomalous forcing this season. Recent 24–48 hour observations show similar partly cloudy patterns yielding 32–34°C readings, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C outcomes and underscoring uncertainty from variable thunderstorm timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,349End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Active southwest monsoon conditions and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms are the main drivers moderating Manila's daytime highs for July 23, with official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicating 31–33°C maxima amid 60% rain probabilities. In Manila's tropical monsoon climate, reduced solar insolation from convective clouds typically caps peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, while high humidity and the urban heat island sustain baseline warmth near the 33°C July average. ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña add little anomalous forcing this season. Recent 24–48 hour observations show similar partly cloudy patterns yielding 32–34°C readings, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C outcomes and underscoring uncertainty from variable thunderstorm timing and intensity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,349End Date
Jul 23, 2026Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Active southwest monsoon conditions and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms are the main drivers moderating Manila's daytime highs for July 23, with official PAGASA guidance and extended models indicating 31–33°C maxima amid 60% rain probabilities. In Manila's tropical monsoon climate, reduced solar insolation from convective clouds typically caps peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, while high humidity and the urban heat island sustain baseline warmth near the 33°C July average. ENSO-neutral conditions following La Niña add little anomalous forcing this season. Recent 24–48 hour observations show similar partly cloudy patterns yielding 32–34°C readings, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C outcomes and underscoring uncertainty from variable thunderstorm timing and intensity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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