Trader sentiment for Chengdu's July 21 peak temperature clusters around 38–40 °C because short-range forecast models show a continuation of the current mid-July heat wave, with afternoon highs influenced by subtropical monsoon flow, weak steering winds, and high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical July averages near 30–34 °C provide context, yet recent station observations exceeding 37 °C and ensemble guidance showing modest warming potential through the weekend keep the 39 °C outcome narrowly favored. Key variables include cloud cover timing, any localized thunderstorm development that could cap temperatures, and official China Meteorological Administration verification at the primary urban station. New model runs and updated guidance expected within 48 hours will likely refine these tightly bunched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on July 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 21?
39°C 39%
40°C 38%
41°C 13%
38°C 13%
NEW
$20,914 Vol.
NEW
$20,914 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
13%
39°C
39%
40°C
38%
41°C
13%
42°C
2%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 39%
40°C 38%
41°C 13%
38°C 13%
NEW
$20,914 Vol.
NEW
$20,914 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
34°C or below
$1,958 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$3,143 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,180 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,388 Vol.
2%
38°C
$1,977 Vol.
13%
39°C
$1,879 Vol.
39%
40°C
$2,007 Vol.
38%
41°C
$3,036 Vol.
13%
42°C
$3,154 Vol.
2%
43°C
$600 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$592 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Chengdu's July 21 peak temperature clusters around 38–40 °C because short-range forecast models show a continuation of the current mid-July heat wave, with afternoon highs influenced by subtropical monsoon flow, weak steering winds, and high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical July averages near 30–34 °C provide context, yet recent station observations exceeding 37 °C and ensemble guidance showing modest warming potential through the weekend keep the 39 °C outcome narrowly favored. Key variables include cloud cover timing, any localized thunderstorm development that could cap temperatures, and official China Meteorological Administration verification at the primary urban station. New model runs and updated guidance expected within 48 hours will likely refine these tightly bunched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$20,914End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Chengdu's July 21 peak temperature clusters around 38–40 °C because short-range forecast models show a continuation of the current mid-July heat wave, with afternoon highs influenced by subtropical monsoon flow, weak steering winds, and high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical July averages near 30–34 °C provide context, yet recent station observations exceeding 37 °C and ensemble guidance showing modest warming potential through the weekend keep the 39 °C outcome narrowly favored. Key variables include cloud cover timing, any localized thunderstorm development that could cap temperatures, and official China Meteorological Administration verification at the primary urban station. New model runs and updated guidance expected within 48 hours will likely refine these tightly bunched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,914End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's July 21 peak temperature clusters around 38–40 °C because short-range forecast models show a continuation of the current mid-July heat wave, with afternoon highs influenced by subtropical monsoon flow, weak steering winds, and high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling. Historical July averages near 30–34 °C provide context, yet recent station observations exceeding 37 °C and ensemble guidance showing modest warming potential through the weekend keep the 39 °C outcome narrowly favored. Key variables include cloud cover timing, any localized thunderstorm development that could cap temperatures, and official China Meteorological Administration verification at the primary urban station. New model runs and updated guidance expected within 48 hours will likely refine these tightly bunched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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