PAGASA forecasts for July 26 point to a 30–33°C range in Metro Manila, with the southwest monsoon (habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms that limit afternoon heating through increased cloud cover and reduced solar radiation. This aligns with typical July climatology of 31–32°C daytime maxima amid high humidity and easterly or southwesterly flow patterns. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on storm timing and intensity, which could shift the official peak by 1–2°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow stronger insolation before convective activity develops. Traders appear to weight the 30–32°C brackets most heavily given the narrow spread in current guidance and historical precedent for monsoon-suppressed extremes, with resolution hinging on the precise maximum recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 26?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 26?
31°C 31%
30°C 25%
32°C 23%
33°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
11%
30°C
25%
31°C
31%
32°C
23%
33°C
15%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 31%
30°C 25%
32°C 23%
33°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
26°C or below
$27 Vol.
1%
27°C
$33 Vol.
1%
28°C
$47 Vol.
3%
29°C
$3 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$0 Vol.
31%
32°C
$0 Vol.
23%
33°C
$26 Vol.
15%
34°C
$10 Vol.
2%
35°C
$17 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$47 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for July 26 point to a 30–33°C range in Metro Manila, with the southwest monsoon (habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms that limit afternoon heating through increased cloud cover and reduced solar radiation. This aligns with typical July climatology of 31–32°C daytime maxima amid high humidity and easterly or southwesterly flow patterns. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on storm timing and intensity, which could shift the official peak by 1–2°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow stronger insolation before convective activity develops. Traders appear to weight the 30–32°C brackets most heavily given the narrow spread in current guidance and historical precedent for monsoon-suppressed extremes, with resolution hinging on the precise maximum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$186End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA forecasts for July 26 point to a 30–33°C range in Metro Manila, with the southwest monsoon (habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms that limit afternoon heating through increased cloud cover and reduced solar radiation. This aligns with typical July climatology of 31–32°C daytime maxima amid high humidity and easterly or southwesterly flow patterns. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on storm timing and intensity, which could shift the official peak by 1–2°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow stronger insolation before convective activity develops. Traders appear to weight the 30–32°C brackets most heavily given the narrow spread in current guidance and historical precedent for monsoon-suppressed extremes, with resolution hinging on the precise maximum recorded at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$186End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA forecasts for July 26 point to a 30–33°C range in Metro Manila, with the southwest monsoon (habagat) driving scattered rains and thunderstorms that limit afternoon heating through increased cloud cover and reduced solar radiation. This aligns with typical July climatology of 31–32°C daytime maxima amid high humidity and easterly or southwesterly flow patterns. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on storm timing and intensity, which could shift the official peak by 1–2°C depending on whether clearer intervals allow stronger insolation before convective activity develops. Traders appear to weight the 30–32°C brackets most heavily given the narrow spread in current guidance and historical precedent for monsoon-suppressed extremes, with resolution hinging on the precise maximum recorded at official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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